Centre for Geophysics of the University of Coimbra C G U C home
(1)
Centre for Geophysics of the University of Coimbra
(2)
Geophysical Institute - University of Porto
(3)
Centre for Geosciences - University of Coimbra
(4) University of Porto
Seismicity in Continental Portugal originates in several neotectonic faults of which stand out the Vilariça, Verin-Régua, Porto-Coimbra-Tomar (PCT), Tagus Valley and Messejana faults.
Project DESIRE (Dynamic Evaluation of Seismic Risk) intends to develop a reliable short- to middle term seismic forecasting method and use the PCT fault to that purpose as a natural laboratory.
Risk evaluation will be available in near real time as risk maps to the civil protection bureaus, which will allow for a greater logistic optimisation and response capability.
Theoretical forecasting principles and the first applications based on the use of neural networks were already set down. Results of this application in the Azores were encouraging, with the prediction, two years beforehand, of the most destructive earthquake of the last 20 years.
This project aims to improve the quality of the forecasts - narrow the confidence intervals - by incorporating variations of physical precursors in the neural network.The physical parameters to be monitored are the variation in propagation velocities of seismic waves, the variation in rock resistivity and magnetic susceptibility anisotropy, EM emissions, water table piezometry and time and space distribution of seismicity.
Project DESIRE will have monitoring stations located in the vicinities of the three largest communities that are affected by the PCT fault: Porto, Coimbra and Tomar. The data gathered at the four stations will be conveyed in real-time to Coimbra, where a neural network that will output daily seismic risk maps for the studied area will process them. These maps will be instantaneously accessible to the civil protection services.
To achieve the strategic goal - near-real-time seismic risk mapping - two tactic stages will have to be implemented:
(1) Physical precursors monitoring along the fault zone, in Porto, Coimbra and Tomar - seismic clustering, seismic waves velocities, rock resistivities, magnetic susceptibility anisotropy and EM emissions.
(2) Further development of the existing neural network software, in order to integrate the contributions of the physical precursors in the input nodes and plot the output nodes (forecasts) as seismic risk maps.
Besides the scientific advancement and the practical benefits for planning, it should not be dismissed the contribution of project DESIRE for the formation of nine young scientists in multiple areas: Geography, Geology, Physics, Electronics and respective technologies.
Execution of this project will be facilitated by the existing co-operation of the participants with other research centres namely, in Portugal, the National Civil Protection Service, the Centres for Geophysics of Évora and Lisbon and the Meteorology Institute and, abroad, the departments of Geology of Lausanne (CH) and Pescara (I) and MITP (RU) - seismic forecasting research institute.